Wrong Theory: Human-caused Climate Change

A recent post [1] pointed out how the institutionalization of science makes the correction of long-accepted but mistaken theories well-nigh impossible.

One contemporary example is the theory that “global warming” and “climate change” are occurring as a result of human activities, most particularly the burning of fossil fuels and release of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere.

The evidence against that theory is so voluminous, and so based on long-accepted geological data, that it deserves to be described as actual  disproof.

For example, during the last 10,000 years, and more than half-a-dozen times during the last million years, global temperatures have varied over a range of 6ºC owing to natural forces.

[from C.K. Folland, T.R. Karl, K.YA. Vinnikov, “Observed Climate Variations and Change”, chapter 7 in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, 1990; https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf]

It is not known what those natural forces are. Therefore they cannot be included in the computer models currently being used for predictions about future temperature changes; nor can it be known whether temperature changes since the Industrial Revolution are a result of those forces or of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. But it is surely obvious that that it seems farfetched, to say the least, to suggest — as is now being done — that cutting human-generated greenhouse gases could prevent warming by 1 or 2ºC when natural forces have quite often produced fluctuations of temperature 5 times larger.

Furthermore,  although carbon dioxide emissions have increased fairly steadily since the middle of the 19^th century,  global temperatures have not:

[from Don J. Easterbrook, “Geologic evidence of the cause of global warming and cooling — are we heading for global catastrophy [sic]?”; https://ruby.fgcu.edu/courses/twimberley/EnviroPhilo/Evidence.pdf]

Although the curves in that Fig. 7.1 above look quite smooth, that’s only because the historical data are not fine-grained enough. Most of the data come from studying layers in geological strata or ice cores. Were it possible to identify global average temperatures year by year, those smooth curves would be seen as averaging continuous fluctuations and a number of cycles with a range of time periods, as discussed in considerable detail by meteorologist David Dilley [2].

The contemporary hysteria about global warming is simply contrary to the facts; and the “scientific” predictions, including warnings about reaching some irreversible “tipping point”, are based on computer models that ignore the natural forces that have caused climate change for billions of years, including the most recent 10,000 years.

But this wrong theory continues to be “what everyone knows” because it is so thoroughly institutionalized: national governments participate in gatherings that elicit promises to do away with fossil fuels, and the media and innumerable commentators and writers, citing reports from the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change, promulgate the belief that human activities will bring temperatures to an irreversible “tipping point” unless drastic actions are taken immediately.

“Climate change” is now a universal cliché, understood to mean human-caused climate change; and innumerable people who know nothing about chemistry or the natural carbon-cycle or geology or science in general declaim about “carbon footprint”, the need to stop eating beef, and much other such nonsense.

Unbiased voices discussing certifiable facts are few, and they are ignored, as is customary nowadays with dissenting views from fully qualified experts in a contrarian minority [3]. As close to a truly informed, neutral, fact-respecting discussion of the possible role and magnitude of human activities in global warming and climate change is Steven Koonin’s Unsettled [4]; Koonin’s credibility is firmly established by his credentials and experience:

“Steven Koonin has been a successful physicist, including pioneering  work  on  the  use  of  high-performance  computers  in simulation and modeling. He gained some insights from the administrative role of Vice President and Provost at Caltech; another highly  relevant  experience as Chief Scientist for the    company BP, focusing on renewable energy possibilities; and he was an Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy in the Obama Administration, focusing on energy technologies and climate science. He understands the viewpoints of scientists, of government, and of industry; in other words, he knows whereof he speaks” [5].

Contemporary human-caused global warming and climate-change is an example of how wrong theories can persist [1]. Once a wrong theory has become institutionalized, deliberate correction becomes well-nigh impossible; at best, one may hope that its harmful consequences would wither away and eventually die out, as happened in the 20^th century with eugenics theory and forcible sterilization of “undesirables”.

Therefore adoption of wrong theories as the basis for public policy ought to be prevented if at all possible. One conceivable mechanism is the establishment of a Science Court, where  proponents of a theory would be forced, in public view and under cross-examination, to argue their case against dissenting experts [6].

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[1]   How wrong theories can persist and do harm, 2024-5-22;
https://henryhbauer.substack.com/p/how-wrong-theories-can-persist-and

[2]   Global Weather Oscillations, https://www.globalweathercycles.com;
David Dilley, Natural Climate Pulse: Global Warming - Global Cooling - Carbon Dioxide; 2007, rev. ed. 2012

[3]   Henry H. Bauer, Dogmatism  in Science and Medicine: How dominant theories monopolize research and stifle the search for truth, McFarland, 2012

[4]   Steven Koonin’s Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters, BenBella Books, 2021; revised and expanded, 2024

[5]   Henry H. Bauer, “THE most important book about climate change”, Journal of Scientific Exploration, 35 (2021) 1032–42

[6]   Henry H. Bauer, Science Is Not What You Think: How It Has Changed, Why We Can’t Trust It, How It Can Be Fixed, McFarland, 2017; chapter 12